Wednesday, July 25, 2012

RBC claims Toronto housing prices will cool, not crash

Pundits and soap box real estate experts (myself included) are concerned (excited) that the Toronto real estate market might crash.

The research department at Royal Bank of Canada meanwhile has released a new report claiming that Toronto housing prices will go down, but that it will only be a cooling effect and not a crash.

This is to be expected. No big bank would EVER go on the record and predict a crash. Such a prophetic statement could be either self-fulfilling (cause real estate investors to pull out in a hurry, thus sparking a crash) or damning to the bank's reputation when said crash doesn't happen.

My point here is that RBC could know that a crash is coming and is safe-guarding itself but saying it will be a cooling effect and doesn't want to predict a crash in case they turn out to be in error.

I also see other interesting headlines like "Toronto housing prices up 23 per cent since 2008" in the Toronto Star and "BMO sees strength in commercial real estate through 2013" from CTV.

I always find it funny that the banks and mass media often provide mixed messages which investors then need to interpret. All of it is essentially "spin". Its glossing over the hard numbers and putting a friendly audience message out so that people don't panic and instead weigh their options carefully.

Which isn't such a bad thing. People SHOULD weigh their options carefully. Its the wise thing to do.

But I also believe Torontonians should be made aware of the vast numbers of overseas investors who have purchased up large swaths of Toronto's housing market, especially in the area of condos currently being built.

And I also think people should be aware that when the majority of those new condos hit the market in 2014-2015 prices are going to dip and dip BIG due to way too much supply and not enough demand. (For more details on those numbers click on "Toronto Real Estate" above to browse my other posts regarding the Toronto real estate market.)

In semi related news I am renewing my efforts in My Quest for a Condo. I took a break there after all the media fuss from the National Post and CBC attention (it kind brought out the crazies with really weird offers) and I've been super busy working and enjoying my Summer. Nevertheless I think enough time has passed and its time to start trading up again.

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