Vancouver's Real Estate Bubble
1. Housing Affordability is 10 out of 10.
Extremely unaffordable. RBC estimated ownership costs at 84.1% of median household income in Q1 2026.
2. Price Growth vs. Fundamentals is 8 out of 10.
Long-term overvaluation remains significant, although benchmark prices declined 5.2% year-over-year in October.
3. Speculative Investment is 7 out of 10.
A history of investment-driven demand and expensive condominium ownership creates vulnerability, although current speculation is subdued.
4. Household Debt and Mortgage Risk is 8 out of 10.
Very high property values make households vulnerable to mortgage refinancing costs and financial shocks.
5. Market Demand and Supply Imbalance is 3 out of 10.
October sales were 22.5% below their 10-year seasonal average, while active listings were 24% above average. Little evidence of a current buying frenzy.
Overall: 36 out of 50.
Inverse Score: 28 out of 100, a Failing Grade.
Montreal's Real Estate Bubble (or Lack Thereof)
1. Housing Affordability is 6 out of 10.
More affordable than Vancouver or Toronto, but deteriorating. CMHC reports ownership costs relative to income have climbed significantly since 2019.
2. Price Growth vs. Fundamentals is 5 out of 10.
Prices have outpaced incomes over several years, although annual price growth slowed to 2.9% in Q3 2026.
3. Speculative Investment is 4 out of 10.
Investment activity exists, especially in condos and rental properties, but evidence of extreme speculative excess is less compelling than in Toronto or Vancouver.
4. Household Debt and Mortgage Risk is 5 out of 10.
Rising home prices and mortgage obligations create moderate vulnerability, although lower purchase prices reduce exposure relative to Vancouver.
5. Market Demand and Supply Imbalance is 3 out of 10.
October sales declined 18% annually, while active listings increased 18%. Current resale conditions are easing, despite longer-term housing shortages.
Overall: 23 out of 50.
Inverse Score: 54 out of 100, a Barely Passing Grade.
So Vancouver is in a real estate bubble, but Montreal is getting a barely passing grade. Not great, but not failing either.
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