Moving into a New Home: 12 Hot Tips

The following is a list of 12 useful tips for when moving into a new home.

#1. Bribe your friends and family (and heck even co-workers if you have nothing to hide) with a BBQ, pizza, beer, etc.

#2. If you don't have any friends or family or co-workers you can trust then hire a professional moving company. Try to get a company that is local and trustworthy. ie. If you live in Montreal and looking for a "déménageur Montréal" then I recommend adtmoving.com just because I really like their video (shown below).



That video alone proves to me that Déménagement Montréal is a solid company. Yes, I may not speak the best French, but the video really impressed me.

#3. When carrying everything in put them all in the center of the rooms so you can paint the walls if you want to without having to move everything two extra times.

#4. If you're moving into the new home and planning to flip it later don't paint the walls willy nilly. Choose colours that everyone will like and will match your decor. This way when you later flip the house for a profit the new owners will like the paint colours and that may earn you some extra cash during the flipping process.

#5. Label all your boxes with what is in the boxes. Give each box a colour and a number. The colour is so you know which room it is going in and the number is so you can find that specific box later. The colours also help the moving men know which room everything goes in.

#6. Create a master list of the box numbers, colours and any important contents (ie. toilet paper).

#7. When in doubt move all the breakable things yourself if you don't trust anyone else to carry them. That way if you break them its YOUR fault.

#8. Always let larger / stronger people carry the big things like your grand piano. Why break your back when you don't need to?

#9. Always have a map and directions of how to get to BOTH places, your old place and the new one, and give copies to everyone. This will save time later and remove any confusion. The last thing you want is people getting lost on the way to the new place. The same rule applies for your cell phone number.

#10. Have a box of commonly used tools handy. Screwdrivers, etc in case anything needs to be disassembled before it can be carried down the stairs.

#11. If you do go the BBQ / pizza route with family and friends ask them in advance what kind of things they want to eat, what toppings they want on their pizza and what kind of beer they like.

#12. When carrying things for many hours have a 5 minute to 10 minute break every hour. It will give people a chance to catch their breath and get a drink, eat an energy bar, etc. People will be able to carry things better and be more sure-footed if they aren't exhausted or hungry.

BONUS TIP: Buy a box of energy bars for everyone.

Six-Storey Condo in Beaches gets Green Light

Beaches Community Council voted unanimously Tuesday in favour of a six-storey condo in the Beaches where a Lick’s hamburger restaurant currently stands. The proposed condo building (called the 'Intimate Boutique') received a chunk of negative attention from local residents who don't want condos in their quiet neighbourhood.

Dozens of Beach-dwellers showed up at the council meeting to voice their opposition to the Queen St. E. project, calling the mere six-storey building “an unbridled monstrosity” and even “an abortion”.

Now come on... seriously. Its only 6 stories tall. Its not a 30-storey building.

And apparently the Beaches Community Council thinks the same way, unanimously no less. Its not a huge building. Larger than a house, but still dramatically smaller than the condos by the Toronto harbourfront.

And really its the issue of having it so close to the beach. And silly when you consider Queen Street East is already dotted with 10 to 20+ storey condos, but none close to the beach.

I think it comes down to the concept of NIMBYs (NIMBY = Not In My Backyard). The same type of people who complain about their neighbours putting up windmills, solar panels or even hanging their laundry on a clothesline. Whiners and complainers who think that if they whine enough that the squeaky wheel will get the grease.

Although I would point out that NIMBYs are quick to flip-flop on the issue if you ask them if they would prefer a new coal burner down the road instead. Ontario has a shortage of electricity and we need to be building more windmills and other renewable energy sources. That or cheap coal and nobody wants coal in their backyard either. That or expensive nuclear, which means raising taxes.

So regardless of what energy source we choose there is always going to be people to complain about. Even hydro-electric dams get complaints because it disrupts local wildlife and fish spawning.

Back to condos what you have to realize is two things:

#1. The Beaches community has tens of thousands of people living there. Only dozens of people showed up to complain. Likely around 24 to 36 people. Not really a lot when you consider that 99.9% of Beaches-ites either stayed home or had something better to do or are in favour of the new condo.

#2. Toronto is becoming ever more crowded. With the growing scarcity of land there really is only one option: Build upwards. While it is true that Toronto is currently facing a condo bubble implosion in the next 3 years from too many condos being built, its also true that 10 years from now all those extra cheap condos after the bubble bursts will be a benefit when dealing with the GTA's soaring population.

So whether the NIMBYs like them or not there are going to be a lot more condos in the future. Some of them will be a lot taller and more "monstrous" than the 'Intimate Boutique' condo to be built in the Beaches.

GET USED TO THEM.

City Living Vs Living Off the Grid

I manage or am a member of over 70 different blogs. One of them is a pet project of mine entitled "Project Gridless".

The concept behind Project Gridless is to explore options for living off the grid. Typically "living off the grid" refers to the electricity grid, which means having a home which either:

A) has no electricity.

or

B) runs off your own solar, wind or hydro power sources.

However going off the grid can also have other meanings: Off the garbage grid, off the waste disposal grid, and so forth. No sewers and no garbage collection.

My parents' farm for example isn't attached to any sewer system. It has its own well for water and its own septic tank for sewage waste. As long as my parents' farm has electricity they can manage their own water supply and waste.

Garbage is a bit more difficult to deal with. There are after all so many different kinds of garbage a household produces:

A) Food waste, which in the case of my parents is usually fed to the cats on the porch or dumped in a compost bin.

B) Wood, which for my parents is usually burnt either in a wood furnace, burnt in a campfire while roasting marshmallows and hotdogs, or chopped down into little pieces with a wood chipper and then used for gardening.

C) Metals. Go on a junk pile and can be sold to metal collectors who pay $$$ for metals.

D) Plastics. This is the trickiest part because where my parents live there isn't a lot of recycling done. You have to PAY to dump plastics at the local garbage dump and in theory those plastics are then collected and recycled and the local municipality makes a chunk of cash off charging people to dump their plastics and also charging recycling companies to collect the plastics. I think it is an irresponsible and unfair practice to charge people just to dump their plastic garbage and it leads to people dumping their garbage illegally on public property (which means the municipality ends up having to clean it up anyway to prevent harm to local wildlife).

Some "off the gridders" prefer to recycle their garbage into making their house bigger and more insulated. This takes effort, but can certainly be an option for those people willing to try.

Electricity is the biggest challenge when going off the grid. Solar and wind power is becoming cheaper and it is possible to get enough energy that way to supply your household if you don't run the TV and AC all the time. Minimal lighting, small energy efficient appliances / computers and you can get by very easily. How you figure out your laundry is another matter all by itself. Washboard and clothesline maybe?

If you have water flowing through your property you could also get electricity via an undershot water wheel and a generator.

The real challenge of having your own electricity sources is not the electricity itself but the battery system. The battery system is what powers everything when its night, when the wind is calm, etc. The batteries aren't cheap so they take up a sizable chunk of your budget if you try to get off the electricity grid.

Then there is a matter of architecture...

It is possible to have a house specifically made for living off the grid. But expect to pay a bundle for it. There are quite a few architects interested in the topic of off-the-grid housing, but even so they don't work for cheap.

However there are some bonuses for being completely off the grid.

#1. You don't have to pay for a converter for trying to share electricity with the grid. Those things are hugely expensive and not worth the effort.

#2. You pay less land taxes for being off the grid.

#3. No more electricity bills! Huzzah! (With the rising costs of electricity in North America you might be surprised how quickly you get your investment back.)

#4. Government subsidies for buying solar and wind power for your home or business.

However there are a number of disadvantages of going off the grid...

#1. You couldn't really do it living in a city unless you made the choice to eat out constantly (or become a raw vegan) and you'd have to be really creative about solving your sewage and waste problems (to say nothing of laundry).

#2. You would be giving up the lifestyle of living in a big city. Not being able to explore downtown, go shopping whenever, go see a movie whenever you felt like it...

#3. Convenience and laziness. Going off the grid is not for lazy people. Its a lot of work to get everything up to spec. Eventually you will be able to relax again, but if you're the type of person who doesn't finish what you start then its recommended you don't try this. Try something small if you want to give yourself a Do-It-Yourself goal, like knitting a sweater or fixing a bicycle.

Living in a big city (especially downtown) is really about convenience. You can walk to places. Things that are moderately farther away can be reached via subway, bus or bicycle. You don't even need a car and when you do need a car for long trips you can just rent one.

Speaking for myself I could go either way. Getting off the grid and going back to nature has its appeal, but I am not certain I could give up city living. Pros and cons either way.

Who will lose their shirts when the condo bubble bursts?

If you are looking for MY QUEST FOR A CONDO, click here.

Some economists and self-proclaimed real estate experts (I'd argue that nobody is a 'real expert' on that topic) are asking: Who will lose their shirts when the Toronto condo bubble bursts?

Well, it actually really depends on WHEN and HOW MUCH the condo market bursts.

In theory you could make a mathematical equation showing what people will be most effected. It would look something like this:

Percentage of Value Lost = Number of People who purchased their condo within an allotted time before the loss based on how much their condo was worth when they purchased x the Perecentage who have "Unstable Employment" + the Percentage who "Paid Too Much" + Other mitigating factors...

Determining how to write such a complex equation and all the factors would be a serious puzzle even for a skilled mathematician, which I am not.

Here are some of the additional factors:

#1. The longer it is delayed the worst it will be when it does burst. More debts piled on to the problem will mean a deeper recession in the local economy in Toronto.

#2. How widespread the debt problems are within Toronto's middle-class (which will take the lion's share when it comes to people losing their proverbial shirts) and to what extent the lower and upper middle class will be effected.

#3. What percentage of people has an insecure job that might be cut if the economy goes sour? Also what percentage may end up having their hours cut and lose a percentage of their take-home salary?

Yada yada yada...

Earlier this week when the CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation) reported that construction of multiple units, such as condos, drove housing starts to an annual pace of 244,900 in April 2012, the strongest pace since September 2007 right before the real estate market in the USA collapsed.

Chief economist (and self proclaimed real estate expert) David Rosenberg recently weighed in on the topic of Toronto's condo bubble overheating.

"If you think [new] constructions are volatile on a month-to-month basis, the fact that new home starts have been rising for five months in a row (by 93% an annual rate over this time frame) may make you wonder whether the strong building momentum is sustainable or whether there is a Canadian housing bubble formation at play," said Rosenberg on May 10th.

Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, says that over the past five months construction starts for multiples such as condos have surged by 220%, at an annual pace, compared to a dip of 1% for single homes. Its highly unusual to see a huge jump in just condos and not have home construction go up at the same time unless there is some serious overheating happening.

Typically the ratio of condos to single unit houses is at its highest right before a bubble bursts.

Right now the multi-to-single ratio of starts is at its highest level since the last housing bubble popped in the early 1980s. Rosenberg says that lends weight to Toronto's bubble size as more than normal investment and speculative demand floods Toronto's condo market.

If the market was truly behaving normally then residential construction would also be high and behaving according to natural demographic demand. But the ratio is highly skewed towards condos being funded by investors hoping to flip them for a profit.

Thus it would seem only logical that it is the investors who are going to lose their shirts... except it isn't. Canadian banks and the CMHC are the ones holding the bag because many of the investors are actually foreigners using money from Canadian banks, which are ensured by the CMHC which means Canadian taxpayers will foot the bill when the condo market becomes flooded and it hurts everyone who recently bought a condo (and hurt house prices too when condos become really cheap).

"No doubt the Canadian economic backdrop is solid overall and mortgage rates are at low levels," says Rosenberg. That makes Canada an easy target for investment because its so easy to mortgage to buy a condo that isn't even built yet.

But if the condo market becomes flooded then who is going to buy all those condos when it comes time to flip them?

Rosenberg also notes that the Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has been trying to warn people.

"But at some point, the Bank of Canada will no longer be playing the role as the boy who called wolf, and mortgage guidelines are already being tightened up," says Rosenberg in his report. "If you are in the market to buy a home, that is one thing. But the condo market - quite another. There is no timing to this except that the next [Bank of Canada] rate-hiking cycle will likely prove to be the sort of situation where the tide comes in and we see who is standing on the shore stark naked."

Or at very least who lost their shirt when the tide came in.

Depending on how badly the bubble bursts it could spell danger to anyone who bought a house too when all those cheap condos flood the market.

In which case Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney isn't really the boy who cried wolf. He's the boy who pointed out that the Emperor has No Clothes.

Vancouver's Real Estate Woes

Toronto isn't the only city in Canada which is facing a market correction.

Vancouver has also seen real estate prices soaring in the stratosphere.

However I don't think Vancouver and Toronto will see market corrections at the same time. Their economies are separated by 4492 km and very different market modifiers.

Those modifiers are:

The amount of local demand for real estate. How many people are looking to buy?

The amount of real estate investors in Vancouver. How many are looking to flip for a profit?

The amount of available supply of houses and condos (and rental supply).

The amount of upcoming supply of houses and condos (and increasing rental supply).

The strength of the local economy (the employment rate + the median salary of the middle class).

Local consumer confidence.

Local household debt.

Ratio of average home sale prices to the middle class median income. (No point using lower class incomes because many of them can't afford to buy homes, diddo for wealthy people who have more stable incomes.)

Local demographics (ie. What age groups are buying condos? Elderly? Young professionals? Families?)

And lastly the ratio of housing starts vs condo starts.

ie. In Toronto housing starts has dropped, but condo starts are through the roof. Mostly due to the rising price of land and the air-space is comparatively cheap.

In Vancouver? Housing starts were steady in April 2012 (but up in the rest of British Columbia) and have been growing steadier since the huge market decline in 2009. But its the volume of condo starts in Vancouver which are worrying.

In Toronto (not the GTA) the average price of a house reached $568,436 in April 2012. The average price for a detached single-family home hit $831,214 (doubled in price since 2002), according to TREB.

In contrast the average single detached home in Vancouver runs over $1 million, but the market for homes is softening while the condo market is heating up.

So evidently the high prices of houses is fueling the demand for condos, which is causing prices to skyrocket.

Price growth in the GTA are up 10% compared to one year ago (and household debt is likewise up, but salaries are stable). Its a bidding war in Toronto due to lack of supply for homes and the high price of land even in Toronto's satellite cities.

Restrictive Greenbelt policies, strong immigration and low interest rates have kept demand in the GTA high.

Vancouver likewise has benefitted from strong immigration and low interest rates, and judging by the housing growth centres in Vancouver most of the demand is near the shoreline.

According to BMO Deputy chief economist Doug Porter the softening in Vancouver's housing market could see foreign investors, who fueled Vancouver prices, start looking to Toronto as a new place to invest.

The worry however is that the investors ditching of Vancouver (whenever it happens) would cause Vancouver's real estate market to go into a tailspin, and then if Toronto's market overheats a year later the investors will ditch Toronto amidst a similar collapse in prices.

So... here is my prediction. Vancouver's condo and housing bubble may burst first, Toronto's market will go into overdrive (creating an even bigger bubble) and then when Toronto's real estate bubble will burst too when it gets too hot for buyers.

In which case there are two possibilites in terms of a price correction for both Toronto and Vancouver:

Option 1: A minor price correction, going down slightly and then buyers jumping on the opportunity. (Which means a larger correction will be delayed, possibly for years.)

Option 2: A major price correction, with buyers waiting until prices bottom out before taking advantage of the super low prices.

Me? I would prefer a larger correction. The prices on both Vancouver and Toronto are outrageous.