Vancouver's Real Estate Bubble vs Montreal

Vancouver's Real Estate Bubble

1. Housing Affordability is 10 out of 10.

Extremely unaffordable. RBC estimated ownership costs at 84.1% of median household income in Q1 2026.

2. Price Growth vs. Fundamentals is 8 out of 10.

Long-term overvaluation remains significant, although benchmark prices declined 5.2% year-over-year in October.

3. Speculative Investment is 7 out of 10.

A history of investment-driven demand and expensive condominium ownership creates vulnerability, although current speculation is subdued.

4. Household Debt and Mortgage Risk is 8 out of 10.

Very high property values make households vulnerable to mortgage refinancing costs and financial shocks.

5. Market Demand and Supply Imbalance is 3 out of 10.

October sales were 22.5% below their 10-year seasonal average, while active listings were 24% above average. Little evidence of a current buying frenzy.

Overall: 36 out of 50.

Inverse Score: 28 out of 100, a Failing Grade.


Montreal's Real Estate Bubble (or Lack Thereof)

1. Housing Affordability is 6 out of 10.

More affordable than Vancouver or Toronto, but deteriorating. CMHC reports ownership costs relative to income have climbed significantly since 2019.

2. Price Growth vs. Fundamentals is 5 out of 10.

Prices have outpaced incomes over several years, although annual price growth slowed to 2.9% in Q3 2026.

3. Speculative Investment is 4 out of 10.

Investment activity exists, especially in condos and rental properties, but evidence of extreme speculative excess is less compelling than in Toronto or Vancouver.

4. Household Debt and Mortgage Risk is 5 out of 10.

Rising home prices and mortgage obligations create moderate vulnerability, although lower purchase prices reduce exposure relative to Vancouver.

5. Market Demand and Supply Imbalance is 3 out of 10.

October sales declined 18% annually, while active listings increased 18%. Current resale conditions are easing, despite longer-term housing shortages.

Overall: 23 out of 50.

Inverse Score: 54 out of 100, a Barely Passing Grade.

So Vancouver is in a real estate bubble, but Montreal is getting a barely passing grade. Not great, but not failing either.

 

 

Five Factors for determining if a Housing Market is in a Bubble

Toronto needs a stable real estate market, not a red-hot housing bubble. Rapidly rising prices make home-ownership increasingly unaffordable, encourage speculation, inflate household debt, and price younger generations out of the market. When bubbles burst, homeowners can lose equity, buyers disappear, and the construction industry suffers. A stable market with gradual, sustainable price growth benefits buyers, sellers, homeowners, and the broader economy.

Housing should be treated as a long-term investment and a basic necessity, not a speculative get-rich-quick scheme.

Five important factors can help determine whether a real estate market is experiencing a speculative bubble. Each factor is rated from 1 to 10, where 1 means little evidence of a bubble and 10 means extreme bubble conditions. The ratings assess underlying vulnerabilities, not necessarily whether prices are currently rising. A market can remain overvalued even while prices are falling.

1. Housing Affordability

Toronto rates 9 out of 10.

Why? Home prices remain far beyond what many ordinary households can comfortably afford relative to their incomes.

2. Price Growth vs. Fundamentals

Toronto rates 7 out of 10.

Why? Years of price appreciation outpaced economic fundamentals, although recent declines have reduced some overvaluation.

3. Speculative Investment

Toronto rates 7 out of 10.

Why? Investor-driven condo construction and expectations of resale profits contributed to distortions, especially in small apartments.

4. Household Debt and Mortgage Risk

Toronto rates 8 out of 10.

Why? Large mortgages, refinancing pressures and rising arrears leave some homeowners financially vulnerable.

5. Market Demand and Supply Imbalance

Toronto rates 4 out of 10.

Why? Sales are weak and inventory is relatively plentiful. Current conditions show little evidence of a renewed buying frenzy.

Toronto's Overall Real Estate Bubble =

35 out of 50

Measured Inversely, that gives Toronto a score of 30 out of 100. A Failing Grade.

This indicates Toronto has high underlying vulnerability.

Toronto is no longer experiencing the same speculative frenzy seen during its earlier housing boom. GTA benchmark prices fell 4.3% year-over-year in October 2026, while sales fell 7.9%.

However, serious vulnerabilities remain. The Bank of Canada has documented speculative condo investment, while CMHC reports rising mortgage stress and persistent affordability problems.

 

Therefore... Toronto's housing bubble is currently deflating, but that doesn't mean the market is fundamentally healthy. It is still getting a Failing Grade. The greatest danger is that inflated valuations, high debt and weak affordability could continue to destabilize the market for years.

 

Next...

 

Let's compare Toronto to a city that has a very stable housing market.

 

Winnipeg, which rates as a 14 out of 50, or 72 out of 100 if Measured Inversely. A passing grade.

1. Housing Affordability is 3 out of 10.

• RBC estimates ownership costs at 32.6% of median household income. Affordability has weakened slightly but remains relatively manageable.

2. Price Growth vs. Fundamentals is 3 out of 10.

• Regional detached prices rose 3% annually in October, suggesting moderate growth rather than runaway appreciation.

3. Speculative Investment is 2 out of 10.

• Less apparent evidence of speculative excess than Toronto's investor-heavy condo market. This is a provisional assessment.

4. Household Debt and Mortgage Risk is 3 out of 10.

• CMHC anticipates comparatively limited increases in mortgage arrears, although borrowers still face financial pressures.

5. Market Demand and Supply Imbalance is 3 out of 10.

• Inventory rose 13% annually, while sales stayed close to their five-year average, suggesting improving balance.

 

That makes Winnipeg one of the more affordable cities to live in.

Have you had your furnace inspected this year?

A cracked furnace heat exchanger is a serious safety hazard because it can allow combustion gases, including potentially deadly carbon monoxide, to enter the home's air supply. Carbon monoxide is colourless, odourless, and can cause poisoning or death.

Homeowners should have their furnaces professionally inspected annually to identify cracks, corrosion, combustion problems, and other potential hazards before they become dangerous. Annual inspections also help maintain heating efficiency, reduce unexpected breakdowns, and extend the furnace's lifespan. Working carbon monoxide alarms provide an additional essential layer of protection.

To hire an unbiased* home inspector to inspect your furnace in Ajax, Pickering or the Durham Region contact Moffat Inspections to get a home inspection.

* Why does an unbiased inspection matter? If you hire someone who installs and repairs furnaces for a living they are going to want to repair or replace your furnace, potentially even if there's nothing wrong with it. They are there to sell you either a new furnace or give you a repair bill. A home inspector is there to see if there is anything wrong with the item being inspected, and they're not there to sell you a furnace or repairs. They're just there to inspect it, write a report about the inspection, shake your hand and wish you a great day.

Have a great day!

 

15 Real Estate Practices That Should Be Illegal in Canada

Canada already prohibits various dubious real estate practices such as mortgage fraud, discriminatory housing decisions, certain forms of misleading advertising, and some types of real estate manipulation.

However, other practices remain legal, inadequately regulated, or subject to loopholes. The following are 15 practices that should be prohibited and/or more strictly regulated, particularly in order to discourage housing bubbles, protect consumers, and improve affordability.

In some provinces some of these things are already illegal or more strictly regulated, but in other provinces they are not. Keep that in mind if you spot anything that is illegal or regulated in your province before sending me nasty hatemail.


Speculation and Housing Bubbles

1. Blind bidding on homes. Buyers should be able to verify competing bids rather than guessing how much to offer. Ontario permits open bidding, but sellers can still choose a blind process. 

2. Speculative flipping without substantial improvements. Buying an existing home and quickly reselling it at a higher price without renovating the property or adding meaningful value should face stronger restrictions. Canada already taxes many flips within 365 days, while B.C. has additional rules for sales within 730 days. 

3. Bulk purchasing of starter homes by institutional investors. Large investment companies should face limits on purchasing existing affordable homes that could otherwise be bought by owner-occupiers.

4. Repeated speculative assignment sales. Investors should not be able to repeatedly trade pre-construction purchase contracts purely to profit from rising prices. Assignment transactions are already subject to tax and disclosure rules, but are not universally prohibited.

5. Deliberately withholding completed homes from sale to manipulate prices. Developers should not be allowed to coordinate artificial scarcity or use deliberate market manipulation to inflate prices. Existing competition laws already prohibit certain collusive conduct.
 

Real Estate Agents and Sales Practices

6. Double-ending real estate transactions. AKA, Double Dipping. I have spoken before about how Double Dipping should be illegal. The same agent should not represent both buyer and seller because their interests can conflict. Ontario allows certain forms of multiple representation with informed consent, subject to restrictions.

7. Commission structures that reward inflated sale prices. Percentage-based commissions create incentives to favour higher transaction prices. Flat-fee or independently negotiated compensation could reduce these conflicts.

8. Deliberately underpricing homes to provoke bidding wars. Listing a $1 million property for $799,000 solely to attract excessive bidding should be more tightly regulated. Deliberately misleading advertising is already prohibited, but strategic underpricing is not automatically illegal.

9. Unverified bidding wars. All competing offers should be recorded in an independently auditable system. Fabricating offers is already prohibited; the proposed reform would require stronger verification.

10. Selling homes without standardized disclosure of major defects. Sellers should have to provide a standardized condition disclosure covering known structural, water, electrical, and other significant defects, with appropriate protections for genuinely unknown conditions. Existing disclosure obligations vary by province and circumstance. This is why so many homebuyers insist upon having a Home Inspector see the property before agreeing to make a purchase, but this assumes that the homeowner didn't deliberately hide defects.

Developers, Landlords and Financial Institutions

11. Excessive pre-construction deposit forfeitures. Developers should not automatically retain enormous deposits when buyers cannot close, particularly if the developer resells the property without suffering an equivalent loss. Existing contract and consumer-protection rules can limit some claims.

12. Excessive mortgage penalties. Lenders should face stricter limits on prepayment penalties that make it financially difficult for borrowers to refinance or sell.

13. Allowing newly built homes to remain vacant for speculative purposes. Purpose-built housing should not sit unused for extended periods simply because investors expect prices to rise. Some jurisdictions already impose vacancy taxes.

14. Demolishing affordable rental housing without adequate replacement. Developers should be required to replace lost affordable units and provide meaningful protections for displaced tenants. Some municipalities already impose rental replacement requirements.

15. Converting large numbers of long-term rental homes into short-term tourist accommodations. Residential neighbourhoods should prioritize permanent residents over commercial short-term rental operations. Restrictions already exist in several Canadian municipalities, including Toronto.
 

As you can see this is a bucket list of problems. If we're not going to make certain activities illegal, we should at least regulate them.

Home Inspector Terminology: A Helpful Guide for Canadian Homebuyers

Brick Spalling in Action.

Buying a home is one of the biggest financial decisions most Canadians will ever make. Unfortunately, the process often involves technical terminology that the average homebuyer may not understand.

When you hire a professional certified home inspector, you might encounter unfamiliar terms such as efflorescence, GFCI, flashing, spalling, backdrafting, or differential settlement.

What do these words mean? More importantly, how do they affect the condition, safety, and value of the home you're considering purchasing?

Understanding basic home inspector terminology can help you make better decisions, ask more informed questions, and avoid potentially expensive surprises.

Why Home Inspection Terminology Matters

A home inspection is a visual assessment of a property's accessible systems and components. Inspectors examine everything from roofing and foundations to plumbing, electrical systems, heating equipment, and structural components.

Their reports frequently contain specialized terminology used by builders, engineers, electricians, plumbers, and other tradespeople.

For example:

• Efflorescence: White mineral deposits on masonry or concrete that can indicate moisture movement.

• GFCI: A Ground Fault Circuit Interrupter designed to protect people from electric shock.

• Flashing: Material installed around roofing joints and penetrations to help prevent water intrusion.

• Spalling: The breaking, flaking, or deterioration of concrete, brick, or stone surfaces.

• Backdrafting: The unwanted reversal of combustion exhaust gases into a building.

• Differential Settlement: Uneven movement of a building's foundation that can cause cracking or structural distortion.

These terms might sound complicated, but understanding them can make a significant difference when evaluating a property's condition.

14 Home Inspection Glossaries Worth Reading

Home inspections cover numerous specialized areas. Fortunately, there are educational glossaries available that explain the terminology used by professional home inspectors.

The following 14 glossaries cover different building systems and inspection categories.

1. Air Conditioning & Heat Pump Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Learn about refrigerants, compressors, condensers, evaporators, heat pumps, cooling capacity, efficiency ratings, and other components of residential cooling systems.

2. Boilers & Steam Heating Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Understand terminology related to boilers, hydronic heating, radiators, expansion tanks, circulation pumps, steam traps, pressure controls, and heating distribution systems.

3. Chimneys, Flues & Venting Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Learn about chimney liners, flue gases, draft, backdrafting, vent connectors, chimney caps, and other components responsible for safely exhausting combustion gases.

4. Electrical Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Discover the meanings of common electrical terms, including GFCI, AFCI, grounding, bonding, service panels, circuit breakers, conductors, and electrical safety devices.

5. Electric Heating Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Explore terminology associated with electric baseboard heaters, radiant heating, thermostats, heating elements, electrical resistance, and other electric heating equipment.

6. Exterior Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Understand terms relating to siding, grading, drainage, soffits, fascia, flashing, exterior cladding, and other components that protect a home from the elements.

7. Fireplaces & Masonry Fireboxes Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Learn about fireboxes, hearths, dampers, smoke chambers, masonry construction, fireplace clearances, and other features of traditional fireplaces.

8. Flooring Structure Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Explore the structural components supporting floors, including joists, beams, subfloors, bridging, blocking, deflection, and load distribution.

9. Foundation Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Understand foundation walls, footings, settlement, cracking, waterproofing, drainage, hydrostatic pressure, and other important foundation-related terminology.

10. Plumbing and Water Heater Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Learn about supply lines, drainage systems, vent pipes, water heaters, pressure relief valves, backflow prevention, and other plumbing components.

11. Roofing Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Discover the meanings of roofing terms such as shingles, flashing, valleys, ridges, underlayment, roof penetrations, ice dams, and roof drainage.

12. Roof Structure Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Learn about rafters, trusses, ridge boards, roof sheathing, collar ties, structural loads, and other components supporting a building's roof.

13. Wall Systems Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Understand wall framing, load-bearing walls, studs, headers, insulation, vapour barriers, sheathing, and other components of residential wall assemblies.

14. Wood Stoves, Space Heaters & Solid-Fuel Appliances Inspection Glossary of Terms and Conditions

Explore terminology relating to wood-burning appliances, combustion air, clearances, flues, hearth protection, chimney connections, and solid-fuel heating safety.

How These Glossaries Can Help Homebuyers

Learning home inspection terminology offers several practical benefits.

1. Better understanding of inspection reports. Instead of being confused by technical descriptions, you'll have a clearer understanding of the inspector's findings.

2. More informed purchasing decisions. Understanding the difference between a minor maintenance issue and a potentially serious defect helps you evaluate the risks associated with a property.

3. Better communication with contractors. Knowing the correct terminology makes it easier to explain problems and understand repair recommendations.

4. Improved home maintenance. Familiarity with building systems helps homeowners recognize potential problems and understand routine maintenance requirements.

5. Greater confidence during negotiations. When an inspection identifies deficiencies, understanding the terminology helps buyers discuss repair estimates, inspection conditions, and possible price adjustments.

Home Inspectors Are There to Inform, Not Decide

One important distinction is that a property inspector's job is not to tell you whether you should purchase a particular property.

A professional home inspector provides an objective assessment of visible and accessible conditions, identifies deficiencies, and explains potential concerns.

The decision to purchase a property remains with the buyer.

Similarly, a home inspection cannot guarantee that a property is free from defects. Concealed problems, inaccessible components, and future equipment failures may fall outside the scope of a standard inspection.

Understanding these limitations is just as important as understanding the technical terminology.

Knowledge Is One of the Best Tools for Homebuyers

Whether you're purchasing your first condominium, upgrading to a detached home, or considering a century-old property, understanding how buildings work is a valuable skill.

You don't need to become an electrician, plumber, roofer, or structural engineer. However, learning the basic terminology used by these professionals can help you recognize potential problems and ask better questions.

The more you understand about a property's systems and components, the better prepared you'll be to evaluate its condition and plan for future maintenance.

A well-informed homebuyer is better equipped to make a sound long-term investment.